2011 Canadian Election Results and Analysis

The Conservatives have got their majority, and Stephen Harper will be able to operate a "benign dictatorship" (his own description of majority governments, circa 1997) for the next four years. The rise of the NDP is awesome, as is the death of the Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals are where they deserve to be, way back in 3rd place. It seems that with Ignatieff as leader, someone who represents the right side of the party, the usual Liberal strategy of pretend to be the NDP during the election, only to become the Conservatives once in power, was finally seen as transparent by voters.

Who the next leader of the Liberal party will be could decide their fortunes. If it is Bob Rae, the party will continue to flounder. It seems like Justin Trudeau is the natural choice. The party desperately needs a fresh face, and Trudeau is it. His politics are also completely wishy-washy, which makes him the perfect Liberal. It would be a big risk for them to go with Trudeau, but they really have no one else who wouldn't be considered old guard, and part of the same tainted collapse. What will really be interesting is what happens with the Bloc Quebecois, which has long been a right-wing nationalist party, with personally popular and likable left wing leader. That odd combination led to the Bloc being popular both with their rural conservative base, and among urban leftists, who make up the bulk of Quebec's population. With Duceppe gone, the party will likely take a sharp right turn, and they could lose the urban majority once and for all.

The real question however is how did the Conservatives manage a majority, when every pre-election poll had them just short? Most polls had the Conservatives in the 36-38% range just before the election, while the Liberals were in the 20-22% range. The Conservatives finished with 39.6% and the Liberals with 18.9%. What this indicates is that there was likely a last minute panic by the right wing of the Liberal Party, who decided to "strategically vote" Conservative in order to block the surging NDP. Of course if you believed sites like projectdemocracy.ca, the Liberals and NDP are interchangeable left wing parties and their voters would do anything to stop the Conservatives. Turns out a lot of Liberals would prefer a Conservative majority to an NDP-Liberal coalition led by Jack Layton.

The other major pickup for the Conservatives was with cultural groups. The Conservatives in Canada realized that demonizing immigrants like the European far right parties wouldn't play well here, and that the most insidious form of racism is actually the multi-cultural impulse to treat individuals as mindless automatons defined by their religion or ethnicity. It looks like all their pandering to these groups and their "ethnic costumes" as the Conservatives called them, paid off. This confirms what I have been saying for awhile, that the left needs to stake out a thoroughly anti-culture position, one that is cosmopolitan and treats people as unique individuals, not as parts of groups defined by their heritage or religion. When people self-identify as part of a cultural group, this generates an inherently conservative mindset, it puts up walls between us and them, and personal interests are sacrificed in favour of the inherently conservative group interests defined by religion or cultural tradition. Being on the left means breaking down cultural walls and helping people escape from the status of being a minority, not playing to it. This should be part of the NDP's strategy over the next 4 years, unfortunately however, due to the continued influenced of the failed academic trend of postmodernism on much of the left, culture is still seen as something that is inherently good.

This election also demonstrated how the Tellurian economy generates an inherently conservative outlook. The oil regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan in combination with the farmland of Southern Ontario have gone solidly Conservative. It looks like capitalism still needs to make some progress in saving us from the idiocy of rural life.

The election has also demonstrated how little engagement there is with what is actually going on in parliament, and confirms my continued assertion that the average person is extremely opposed to politics. Another meagre turnout of 61%, second lowest in history demonstrates that with all this talk of youth voting. Secondly the Conservatives started the campaign complaining about how elections are unnecessary, and how they should be given a majority so that the populace would not have to be saddled with the horrors of another election for 4 years. Considering how thoroughly disenfranchising and alienating electoral democracy is, elections are the sole time anything political actually takes place, and that people voted for a party which ran a message-track which was explicitly anti-political, it seems a good 40% of Canadians would be quite happy being rid of politics altogether.

On top of this general antipathy towards anything political itself, we have the shocking ignorance or direct disregard of what actually happens in parliament by voters. Voters in Durham, Ontario re-elected Cabinet Minister Bev Oda in a landslide victory. She garnered 54% of the vote, and won by over 19,000 votes, despite the fact she was found in contempt of parliament for lying. No one has ever been found in contempt of parliament in Canada, or even in any Commonwealth country before, but she is rewarded with a massive victory. This just goes to show that most people who vote are completely ignorant of what they are actually doing, and do not pay attention to anything that actually goes on in parliament. Being disengaged but actually voting is certainly much much worse than being disengaged and not voting.

Then there is the electoral system. Again through a trick of the first past the post system, a party in which 60% of the population votes against, end up with 54% of the seats in parliament and gets to rule unconditionally for the next four years. First past the post only works when there are two parties, and is completely unsuited to Canada. Hopefully now that the Liberals have experienced the pain of being massively underrepresented by the electoral system, they will come around and start to favour electoral reform. Probably not though. At least the NDP and Elizabeth May will provide a voice for this issue.

Now as I promised in previous posts, here is what things would like like today, if instead of using the current first past the post system, we used a preferential mixed member system. To recap, in such a system, we had have the same 308 ridings, but you would be able to rank candidates in order of preference, thus ensuring vote splitting is not an issue and the preferred candidate would actually win. There would be an additional 105 seats (the same number as the abolished Senate) which would be distributed according to popular vote, and would be allocated to candidates according to a biggest loser system, thus meaning that dense underrepresented urban ridings with large populations, may end up with multiple Members of Parliament to better represent them and deal with local constituency level backlogs.

Under the current system, the results were as follows:
Conservatives, 167 seats, 39.6% of the popular vote, and winning 54.2% of parliament.
NDP, 102 seats, 30.6% of popular vote, 33.1% of parliament.
Liberals, 34 seats, 18.9% popular vote, 11% of parliament.
Bloc Quebecois, 4 seats, 6% popular vote, 1.3% of parliament.
Green Party, 1 seat, 3.9% popular vote, 0.3% of parliament.

Now under my proposed system of PMMP (Preferential Mixed-Member Proportional) we would get:

Conservatives 145 riding wins + 19 PR seats = 164 total = 39.7% of parliament
NDP 116 riding wins + 11 PR seats = 127 total = 30.8% of parliament
Liberals 44 rinding wins + 35 PR seats = 79 total = 19.1% of parliament
Bloc Quebecois 1 riding win + 24 PR seats = 25 total = 6.1% of parliament
Green Party 1 riding win + 16 PR seats = 17 total = 4.1% of parliament

As you can see, the totals in parliament actually line up with what people voted for, and the Conservatives certainly do not get a majority government with less than 40% of the votes.

Ridings which would change hands based on preferential voting (second choice numbers from the May 1st EKOS poll are used):

Newfoundland

Labrador: Liberal Todd Russel preferred over Conservative Peter Penashue

Nova Scotia

South Shore--St. Margaret's: NDP Gordon Earle preferred over Conservative Gerald Keddy

New Brunswick

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe: Liberal Brian Murphy preferred over Conservative Robert Goguen

Quebec

Ahuntsic: NDP Chantal Reeves preferred over BQ Maria Mourani
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: NDP Tanya Fredette preferred over Conservative Jacques Gourde
Papineau: NDP Marcos Tejada preferred over Liberal Justin Trudeau
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour: NDP Krista Lalonde preferred over BQ Louis Plamondon
Richmond--Arthabaska: NDP Isabelle Maguire preferred over BQ Andre Bellavance
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup: NDP Francois Lapointe preferred over Conservative Bernard Genereux
Westmount--Ville-Marie: NDP Joanne Corbeil preferred over Liberal Marc Garneau

Ontario

Bramalea--Gore--Malton: NDP Jagmeet Singh preferred over Conservative Bal Gosal
Don Valley East: Liberal Yasmin Ratansi preferred over Conservative Joe Daniel
Don Valley West: Liberal Rob Oliphant preferred over Conservative John Carmichael
Etobicoke Centre: Liberal Borys Wrzesnewskyj preferred over Conservative Ted Opitz
Kitchener--Waterloo: Liberal Andrew Telegdi preferred over Conservative Peter Braid
London North Centre: Liberal Glen Pearson preferred over Conservative Susan "Koopa" Truppe
Mississauga East--Cooksville: Liberal Peter Fonseca preferred over Conservative Wladyslaw Lizon
Nipissing--Timiskaming: Liberal Anthony Rota preferred over Conservative Jay Aspin
Pickering--Scarborough East: Liberal Dan McTeague preferred over Conservative Cornelius Chisu
Sault Ste. Marie: NDP Tony Martin preferred over Conservative Bryan Hayes
Scarborough Centre: LIberal John Cannis preferred over Conservative Roxanne James
Willowdale: Liberal Martha Hall-Findlay preferred over Conservative Chungsen Leung

Manitoba

Elmwood--Transcona: NDP Jim Malloway preferred over Conservative Lawrence Toet
Winnipeg North: NDP Rebecca Blaikie preferred over Liberal Kevin Lamoureux
Winnipeg South Centre: Liberal Anita Neville preferred over Conservative Joyce Bateman

Saskatchewan

Palliser: NDP Noah Evanchuk preferred over Conservative Ray Boughen

British Colombia

Vancouver Island North: NDP Ronna-Rae Leonard preferred over Conservative John Duncan

Yukon

Yukon: Liberal Larry Bagnell preferred over Conservative Ryan Leef

The 105 seats assigned by popular vote would go to the following candidates in the specified ridings, thus these ridings would be represented by the preferred candidate plus the following:

Vancouver Island North: Conservative John Duncan
Kitchener--Waterloo: Conservative Peter Braid
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca: Conservative Troy DeSouza
Saanich--Gulf Islands: Conservative Gary Lunn
Nanaimo--Cowichan: Conservative John Koury
Don Valley West: Consevative John Carmichael
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: Conservative Jacques Gourde
Willowdale: Conservative Chungsen Leung
Etobicoke Centre: Conservative Ted Opitz
Louis-Saint-Laurent: Conservative Josee Verner
Kingston and the Islands: Conservative Alicia Gordon
Welland: Conservative Leanna Villella
Vancouver Quadra: Conservative Deborah Meredith
New Westminster--Coquitlam: Conservative Dianna Dilworth
Burnaby--Douglas: Conservative Ronald Leung
Bramalea--Gore--Malton: Conservative Bal Gosal
Edmonton--Strathcona: Conservative Ryan Hastman
Ottawa South: Conservative Elie Salibi
London North Centre: Conservative Susan "Koopa" Truppe

Nanaimo--Alberni: NDP Zenaida Maartman
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo: NDP Michael Crawford
Lévis--Bellechasse: NDP Nicole Laliberté
Oshawa: NDP Chris Buckley
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission: NDP Craig Speirs
Essex: NDP Taras Nadyshak
Edmonton East: NDP Ray Martin
Brant: NDP Marc Laferriere
Toronto Centre: NDP Susan Wallace
Fleetwood--Port Kells: NDP Nao Fernando
Lac-Saint-Louis: NDP Alain Ackad

Oak Ridges--Markham: Liberal Lui Temelkovski
Ottawa--Orléans: Liberal David Bertschi
Brampton West: Liberal Andrew Kania
Ajax--Pickering: Liberal Mark Holland
Mississauga--Erindale: Liberal Omar Alghabra
Halton: Liberal Connie Laurin-Bowie
Vaughan: Liberal Mario Ferri
Nepean--Carleton: LIberal Ryan Keon
Etobicoke--Lakeshore: Liberal Michael Ignatieff
Mississauga--Streetsville: Liberal Bonnie Crombie
Eglinton--Lawrence: Liberal Joe Volpe
Mississauga--Brampton South: Liberal Navdeep Bains
Mississauga South: Liberal Paul Szabo
Carleton--Mississippi Mills: Liberal Karen McCrimmon
Oakville: LIberal Max Khan
Ottawa West--Nepean: Liberal Anita Vandenbeld
Richmond Hill: Liberal Byron Wilfert
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell: Liberal Julie Bourgeois
North Vancouver: Liberal Taleeb Noormohammed
Brossard--La Prairie: Liberal Alexandra Mendes
Parkdale--High Park: Liberal Gerard Kennedy
London West: Liberal Doug Ferguson
Papineau: Liberal Justin Trudeau
Bramalea--Gore--Malton: Liberal Gurbax Malhi
West Nova: Liberal Robert Thibault
Vancouver South: Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh
Kitchener Centre: Liberal Karen Redman
Westmount--Ville-Marie: Liberal Marc Garneau
Trinity--Spadina: Liberal Christine Innes
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour: LIberal Mike Savage
Beaches--East York: Liberal Maria Minna
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale: Liberal Dave Braden
Honoré-Mercier: Liberal Pablo Rodriguez
Pierrefonds--Dollard: Liberal Bernard Patry
Newton--North Delta: Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal

Verchères--Les Patriotes: BQ Luc Malo
Montcalm: BQ Roger Gaudet
Repentigny: BQ Nicolas Dufor
Chambly--Borduas: BQ Yves Lessard
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour: BQ Louis Plamondon
Joliette: BQ Pierre Paquette
Sherbrooke: BQ Serge Cardin
Beauharnois--Salaberry: BQ Claude Debellefeuille
Richmond--Arthabaska: BQ Andre Bellavance
Laurier--Sainte-Marie: BQ Gilles Duceppe
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: BQ Meilli Feille
Laurentides--Labelle: BQ Johanne Deschamps
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: BQ Bernard Bigras
Terrebonne--Blainville: Dianne Bourgeois
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel: BQ Mario Laframboise
Berthier--Maskinongé: BQ Guy Andre
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord: BQ Michel Guimond
Saint-Jean: BQ Claude Bachand
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: BQ Marie-France Charboneau
La Pointe-de-l'Île: BQ Ginette Beaudry
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert: BQ Carole Lavallee
Abitibi--Témiscamingue: BQ Marc Lemay
Rivière-du-Nord: BQ Monique Guay
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant: BQ Carole Freeman

Vancouver Centre: Green Adriane Carr
Dufferin--Caledon: Green Ard Van Leeuwen
Victoria: Green Jared Giesbrecht
Calgary Centre-North: Green Heather Macintosh
Calgary West: Green Anna-Lisa Wagner
Okanagan--Shuswap: Green Greig Crockett
Calgary Centre: Green William Hamilton
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca: Green Shauna Salsman
Kelowna--Lake Country: Green Alice Hooper
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: Green Emma Hogbin
Nanaimo--Cowichan: Green Anne-Marie Benoit
Okanagan--Coquihalla: Green Dan Bouchard
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country: Green Brennan Wauters
Nanaimo--Alberni: Green Myron Jespersen
Wild Rose: Green Mike MacDonald
Calgary Southeast: Green Brett Spencer

As you can see, most of the close races would give both candidates a seat, and large ridings will get more than one MP.

Clearly this system would produce a much more accurate representation of how Canadians actually voted. Today on CBC the NDP expressed support for electoral reform, while the Liberals remain skeptical, despite being grossly underrepresented in this parliament.